Thursday, 6 March 2014

Next Sure Win Theme: Plantation!

There are a lot of good news awaiting the CPO to climb up to its peak price after the long 2 years!
the CPO price has been depressed for the past 2 years! Now... It stands at RM 2800 ++ per tonne.
What does this imply? This means the EPS for the plantation companies are going to increase fantastically!

Reasons:

  • CPo futures jump across the board amid bullish sentiment at palm oil conference!
  • if the Ukraine Crisis persist, Brent oil can raise to> US 110 / barrel. ( will rise the CPO as well)
  • Dry weather at America affects the bean crop and increase the demand for edible oil from palm oil.
But... 
out of so many stocks... which stocks to be chosen?

Let's us look at the POTENTIAL growth!
  1. Land bank for further cultivation of plantation
  2. Palm trees those are not mature yet
Let's take a look at Cepat Wawasan. It's EPS starts to turn around recently. increases to 3.89c! with a coming dividend of RM 0.02 per share. NTA of RM 1.3 + . It is a sure win bet! 
A position took at RM 0.945+- 

Reasons for picking Cepat:

  1. Steady increase in young Palm trees (< 5 years)- Company is planting new Palm trees to substitute OLD palm trees 
  2. Good Dividend yeild. Coming dividend at Rm 0.02 . I am expecting increasing in dividend in financial year 2014 as the CPO price rise to RM 2800
  3. NTA is more than the share price.  This means that if any Giant Plantation company is going to buy CEPAT, they need to pay higher price for the share! Just like potential seller Dutaland! 


Downward risks:
  1. Increment of import duty by India
  2. Refusal of China to purchase Malaysia Palm Oil? 

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